General
The SP will open higher for the 6th day in a row. The current price the SP is up roughly 500 basis points on the month with more than 300 bps from the overnight gap. There’s little edge from that stat for today but it’s worth noting we’ve seen 7 higher opens just twice in the past two years.
Scoreboard
Bitcoin is ripping faces off
Events
Strategy and Levels
With a straddle of just 16 for the day for the ES and the rate of change this month, risk takers I talk to think today sets a tradeable high for countertrend Tuesday. The rally off last Friday’s low is a reminder how much deleveraging in long/short funds exaggerated the decline and how underweight folks are on the rallies. US equities and the Nikkei are the obvious outperformers this month and year but I continue to think the FTSE has ‘potential’ to catch up this year. The dollar is crossed up as Euro, Yen, and Swiss remain sales on rallies while Kiwi and Sterling seem to have room to the upside.
Yields appear to want to work their way higher this year but according to risk takers I talk to Fixed Income is a sale on rallies and the Bond and Bund are working on their 8th lower close. Correspondingly, crude is a buy at 21-34% pullback of the year’s move while Copper ‘seems’ to have room to new highs.
Anything Elon touches is a winner, and TSLA just announced Bitcoin holdings and the intent to allow payment through the digital coin for its cars. Bitcoin rallied $2300 inside of five minutes – in a reminder (as if we need another) that digital coins have overtaken
Happy Trading!
Sincerely,
John Netto
Macro & Event-Trading Specialist
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